A comprehensive analysis of 240 NFL draft prospects selected in rounds 3-7 between 2021-2024 has uncovered which pre-draft metrics most accurately predict professional success, according to research commissioned by sports betting props publication Cleatz.

The study, which tracked players through their first two NFL seasons, found that specific athletic testing ratios outperformed traditional scouting metrics in predicting on-field production.

Speed Score Trumps Raw 40 Times

Running backs in the top 30% for speed score, a weight-adjusted 40-yard dash metric, hit rushing yards benchmarks 61.8% of the time as rookies, compared to just 44.3% for those below the 30th percentile, according to the research.

“The market sets rookie expectations based heavily on draft position and college production, but we found athletic testing data was being systematically undervalued,” said Jason Ziernicki, founder of Cleatz.

“A fifth-round pick with elite testing numbers often enters the league with similar expectations as a sixth-round pick with average measurables, yet our data showed the athletic outlier outperformed 17 percentage points more often.”

For wide receivers, the three-cone drill demonstrated the strongest correlation with first-season success, showing a 0.72 correlation coefficient with reception totals. Receivers posting sub-6.90 second three-cone times exceeded expectations 59.4% of the time during their rookie campaigns.

Efficiency Metrics Over Volume Statistics

The study found that running backs averaging 5.5+ yards per touch in college went on to average 673 rushing yards as NFL rookies, compared to 441 yards for backs below 4.5 yards per touch, a 53% difference in professional production.

Yards after contact proved equally predictive. College backs averaging 3.2+ yards after contact exceeded their rookie season projections in 68.2% of games where they received 15 or more carries.

Traditional scouting focuses on total production numbers, but efficiency ratios gave us much better predictive power, says Ziernicki. “A back who consistently gained yards after contact in college continued that pattern in the NFL, regardless of the team situation they landed in.”

Target Separation as a Leading Indicator

Analysis of target separation data revealed that college receivers averaging 2.5+ yards of separation consistently outperformed expectations as rookies, succeeding 57.9% of the time compared to 46.1% for receivers averaging under 2.0 yards of separation.

The finding held true across different levels of college competition and regardless of NFL quarterback play, suggesting route-running ability translates more reliably than contested-catch production.

Day-three draft picks who dominated preseason snap counts, logging 60% or more of available snaps, exceeded expectations in their first three regular season games 71.4% of the time, despite entering the league with minimal hype.

“We identified a specific pattern where third-day picks who led preseason snaps at their position earned significant Week 1 roles, but the market took until Week 4 or 5 to recognize it,” said Ziernicki.