The Denver Broncos are 10-2, atop the AFC West, and the No. 2 seed in the AFC Conference. So, Broncos head coach Sean Payton should be in the running for The Coach of the Year award. One NFL Insider says not so fast. Payton deserves praise for what he’s done with the Broncos, but he may be a victim of his own success with the New Orleans Saints, according to the insider. The insider continued.

Why Sean Payton Isn’t Going To Win Coach of the Year

Sports Illustrated‘s Albert Breer released his weekly mailbag on Wednesday. In it, he answered a question about the Broncos. When asked about Payton getting Coach of the Year love, Breer brought up Payton’s own success — and used it against him.

“I think the reason is based on expectations. The Coach of the Year award routinely seems to be a most improved team award. In other words, it’s a reflection of how a team performs relative to our collective perception of that team. So last year, with a rookie quarterback and a bumpy Year 1 fresh in our memories, Sean Payton was a prime candidate. The problem, even with Denver making the playoffs for the first time in nine years, was that the year-over-year improvement was just two wins,” Breer wrote.

Even in a bumpy Year 1 with quarterback Russell Wilson, Payton led the Broncos to an 8-9 record. So, it cost him a shot at The Coach of the Year award last year. In other words, Payton’s floor is too high for the award. For reference, the 2022 Broncos were 5-12. Payton’s year-over-year improvement in Year 1 was three games, but no playoff appearance. He’d have fared better if he’d gone from 5-12 to 10-7 in one year as opposed to two, obviously.

That said; this year, the bar was even higher for Payton. He’s coming off the aforementioned 10-win season. Breer continued, writing, “The Broncos in no way shied away from Super Bowl talk over the summer, and they’ve delivered, going 10–2. And in a way, Payton’s shot at winning the award becomes a casualty of that narrative.”

Unless the Broncos win out and go 15-2, Breer is right. A conservative estimate has the Broncos finishing 13-4, though. So, it is what it is, Broncos Country. All told, Broncos fans will most certainly take the nine-game winning streak, the division title, and potentially the No. 1 seed in the conference.