Predicting the first NFL head coach to be fired based on the schedule
Bullet point summary by AI
- A head coach faces a brutal early schedule that could test his job security before the season reaches its midpoint.
- The first six weeks include road games against playoff contenders and a tough division stretch that may leave the team winless.
- If the record dips to 0-6 or 2-4, the front office may move on before the Week 13 bye to start planning for a rookie quarterback in 2027.
If there’s one thing we know about the modern NFL, it’s that there will inevitably be at least one team (and likely more) with an itchy trigger finger just waiting for an excuse to kick their head coach to the curb after a poor start to the coming season. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if a coach is let go before the season even starts (Mike Vrabel, I’m looking at you).
Professional conduct scandals aside, we’re here to just focus on the football — bad football, to be precise. Out of the five teams that picked first in the 2026 NFL Draft, only one of them retained a head coach from their abysmal 2025 campaign. That team? The New York Jets. And as if the ice Aaron Glenn finds himself on weren’t thin enough after going 3-14 in his first year at the helm, New York’s 2026 schedule has done him no favors.
Why Jets’ 2026 schedule will doom head coach Aaron Glenn
The Jets don’t get a bye week until the first week of December (Week 13), but their season could be in the dumpster within the first month and a half when you seehow their schedule begins.
- Week 1: @ Tennessee Titans
- Week 2: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 3: @ Detroit Lions
- Week 4: @ Chicago Bears
- Week 5 vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 6: @ New England Patriots
Half of those teams made the playoffs, and three of the four road opponents had records better than .500 last season. Could the Jets beat a Tennessee Titans team looking to rebound with new head coach Robert Saleh? Sure, but they should be much improved as year-two Cam Ward now has new weapons like Wan’Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate.
And that might be the easiest part of this opening gauntlet. Three consecutive matchups against NFC North foes — a division that could send all four members to the playoffs if the dominoes fall right — is a stretch only a handful of teams could emerge from unscathed. I don’t think the Jets win any of them, especially with two coming on the road.
Facing the Cleveland Browns at home appears to be the only reprieve in this first section of the schedule. A win is realistic given that Cleveland is in just as much of a chaotic situation with no discernable plan at quarterback. Though that’s what makes this the deadliest trap of all: A loss would essentially give owner Woody Johnson — a man not known for his patience — all the ammunition he would need to write the pink slip for his head coach. Waiting until after a Week 6 bloodbath against New England in Foxboro would just be a professional courtesy.
If New York is, indeed, anywhere between 0-6 and 2-4 after this opening stretch, then Glenn would be lucky to be given until the Week 13 bye to try and show signs of life. The next six weeks include two favorable matchups against the Miami Dolphins (Weeks 7 and 12) as well as a Week 8 bout with the Las Vegas Raiders (who may be starting rookie QB Fernando Mendoza by then).
The Jets may not necessarily be in full tank mode, but if Glenn can’t get any traction within the first six to eight weeks of the season, the team may be in a precarious position. The play would be to move on from him and start the search for a guy who can kick start things with whichever rookie QB the front office brings in with a top draft pick in 2027 (Arch Manning or Dante Moore possibly?).
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