‘This Deal Could Be Disastrous’ — NFL Analyst ‘Still Blown Away’ by Bengals’ Bold Trade for $28M All-Pro
The Cincinnati Bengals made the most aggressive move of their franchise’s modern history when they sent the No. 10 overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft to the New York Giants for All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.
The deal came with a one-year, $28 million extension that locks Lawrence in through the 2028 season. It is a clear signal that Cincinnati is going all-in around Joe Burrow for the Super Bowl. However, not everyone views the trade as a stroke of genius. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell raised pointed concerns about the cost, the timing, and the player himself.
Why Bill Barnwell Sees Risk in the Bengals’ Dexter Lawrence Trade
Barnwell framed the deal in historical terms, noting that trading a known top-10 pick for a veteran has happened only twice in the past 25 years, with the Oakland Raiders doing so for Randy Moss and the Denver Broncos for Russell Wilson.
Both moves didn’t turn out to be well for the Raiders and the Broncos, which is why it isn’t certain that the Bengals will get the best out of Lawrence.
“I’m nervous that Lawrence is coming off his worst season as a pro as part of a defense that was dismal against the run in New York,” Barnwell said. “And though that can partially be chalked up to an elbow injury, Lawrence’s 2024 season was ended by that same elbow issue.”
“Given how much they’re spending on their big three on offense (Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins) and a handful of other players, the Bengals need cost-controlled talent to make their roster construction work,” he added.
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“Giving up the No. 10 pick to get a proven quantity like Lawrence feels like a win for Bengals fans who are sick of seeing the team whiff on first-round picks,” Barnwell continued. “But is it enough to propel the Bengals forward into Super Bowl contention? And if Lawrence isn’t as known of a quantity as it seems, this deal could be disastrous for Cincinnati.”
The concern is backed by stats, as Lawrence recorded a career-low 0.5 sacks in 2025, a dramatic drop from his career-high 9.0 sacks in just 12 games the season before.
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Giants general manager Joe Schoen also admitted at the combine that Lawrence’s lingering elbow injury, which originally ended his 2024 campaign, was a factor throughout the 2025 season.
However, the Bengals were under pressure to make a big move to keep Burrow happy. After losing Trey Hendrickson in free agency, Cincinnati needed another star player on defense, and they did by trading for Lawrence.
According to PFSN’s DT Impact Metric, here is how Lawrence has ranked in the last four seasons:
- 2022: 84.5 impact score, ranked 16th at his position.
- 2023: 90.2 impact score, ranked 5th at his position.
- 2024: 82.1 impact score, ranked 19th at his position.
- 2025: 77.3 impact score, ranked 38th at his position.
Whether the trade for Lawrence works out remains to be seen, but the Bengals’ offseason moves have certainly made Burrow confident about the team. “We’re going to go win a lot of games this year and play great and win a Super Bowl,” the Bengals quarterback said recently.
