How the Phillies can catch up with the Dodgers in 4 trade deadline moves
The Philadelphia Phillies are in a fascinating spot. On one hand, they’re 10 games over .500 on the season and 20 games over .500 under interim manager Don Mattingly. On the other hand, as has been the case throughout this contention window, their roster, while excellent in some areas, is extremely lackluster in others.
Their weaknesses held them back in last year’s NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and could hold them back in the postseason again if Dave Dombrowski doesn’t attempt to make major moves. As the two teams get set to begin a huge set at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night, these deadline moves could get the Phillies closer to dethroning Los Angeles in October.
The Phillies can benefit from a Mets fire sale
The Phillies’ top priority should be to add to their rotation. That doesn’t necessarily mean adding Tarik Skubal, but their lack of starting pitching depth has been an underdiscussed issue all year. The Phillies have gone 5-20 in games started by players not named Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo and Aaron Nola. That is an issue. Whether it’s been Andrew Painter, Taijuan Walker, Alan Rangel or someone else, their No. 5 starters have not been good enough. This trade with the New York Mets should address that.
Yes, Clay Holmes has been sidelined since mid-May with a knee injury, but he’s on a rehab assignment right now and should be available to pitch the stretch run. He was pitching extremely well prior to his injury (2.39 ERA in nine starts), and could be particularly appealing for the Phillies since he can work out of the bullpen in the postseason (when Sanchez, Wheeler and Luzardo figure to do most if not all of the heavy lifting). He has tons of experience pitching in pressure moments out of the ‘pen from his time as Yankees closer.
Holmes figures to be one of the best starters available this summer, though, and that means he won’t come cheap — especially in a deal involving a division rival. Aroon Escobar has had a rough year (which could lead the Phillies to move him), but he’s a contact hitter who draws walks, steals bases and could be New York’s solution at second base if things break right. Even if they don’t, he’s a worthwhile swing for the Mets to take in exchange for a rental who’d hit free agency this offseason if they don’t extend him.
Trading Escobar for a free agent-to-be would’ve seemed inconceivable this time last year from a Phillies perspective, but again, his stock has taken a dip — and Holmes can really help them in the second half and in October.
A Phillies reunion with Jeff Hoffman could make sense
Another area of clear concern is the bullpen. Jhoan Duran has been everything the Phillies could’ve hoped for, but who do you trust in front of him, especially with Brad Keller now out for the year? A Jeff Hoffman reunion could give Don Mattingly another late-game option to trust.
Would this be a dream reunion? No. Hoffman, while excellent in Philadelphia, has been anything but since signing with the Toronto Blue Jays last offseason. With that being said, he has been much better since being taken out of the closer role (1.62 ERA in his last 17 appearances), and while his overall ERA is quite high, his 2.63 FIP suggests he’s gotten very unlucky. Hoffman has done a much better job keeping the ball in the yard this season, and he’s still flashing excellent stuff, with whiff rates and strikeout rates ranking in the 98th percentile per Baseball Savant.
His contract is big (he’s owed the remainder of his $12.6 million salary this season and another $12.6 million next season), so the Jays might need to eat some of the remaining money on his deal. But he can be an effective set-up man for Duran, especially in an environment in which he’s proven he can succeed.
The cost wouldn’t be incredibly cheap, though, as the Phillies would be sending two intriguing relief prospects north of the border. Wen-Hui Pan and Alex McFarlane both have strong strikeout stuff and should help at the MLB level sooner rather than later. In fact, McFarlane was just promoted to the Majors and could make his debut shortly. The Jays are likely sellers at this year’s deadline, but they’d presumably want to compete in 2027. Trading Hoffman could hurt that goal, but replacing him with guys who can help as soon as next spring would make sense.
Lane Thomas is an inexpensive fix to a glaring Phillies weakness
Lane Thomas is not a big name by any means, but he’d help the Phillies as a right-handed outfielder who hits left-handed pitching well. Thomas has a .785 OPS against southpaws this season and a .848 mark against them in his career. That’ll play, especially when considering the lack of production guys like Gabriel Rincones Jr. and Justin Crawford provide against lefties.
Would it be nice to land a better outfielder, one who could conceivably play every day? Sure, but who else is out there? Options are tough to find right now, especially with Philadelphia’s weak farm system, so landing Thomas, an outfielder they can at the very least rely on to raise their floor against lefties, could make sense.
This deal would have the Phillies sending Griffin Burkholder to the Kansas City Royals. This would sting, as the team selected him as an over-slot second-rounder in the 2024 MLB Draft, but he has not hit at all in the Minors and has watched his stock plummet as a result. There’s still enough promise with Burkholder’s defense and athleticism for the Royals to take a flier, but he’s far from a perfect prospect, which makes sense as a return for a platoon outfielder.
Adrian Morejon is a dynamic reliever the Phillies could use
Why not save the biggest deal for last? I know Phillies fans want Mason Miller, but I’m not convinced the San Diego Padres will trade him — and if they do, I highly doubt Philly has what it takes to get him. The Phillies can, however trade for Adrian Morejon. And while he might not be Miller, he’s not as far off as you might think.
His 3.46 ERA might be a bit high, but he has a 2.45 FIP. a 27.7 percent strikeout rate and a 6.1 percent walk rate. He throws incredibly hard, throws strikes, generates tons of whiffs, keeps the ball in the yard, dominates both lefties and righties and even can record more than three outs if needed. What more do you want? His metrics under the hood suggest he’s one of the best relievers in the sport, and that’s honestly how he should be valued. That makes the idea of trading a prospect like Francisco Renteria for Morejon, a rental, easier to stomach.
The Padres are not clear sellers, but if this kind of offer presents itself for Morejon, they ought to be. Renteria is only 17 years old and is currently in Rookie ball, but the Phillies didn’t give him $4 million as an international free agent for no reason. He has five-tool potential, making him particularly intriguing for the Padres. There’s certainly some risk in acquiring a teenager who isn’t even in Single-A yet, but landing someone with this sort of upside in exchange for a pending free agent would be shrewd business.
The Phillies would be getting the setup man of their dreams, while the Padres would be selling high on a reliever unlikely to be back next year in what looks like a lost season for them. Sounds like a good deal for both sides.
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