In some respects, it’s almost Christmas for NFL fans.

This is already a time of hope for fans. Sure, fans of the Kansas City Chiefs are still basking a little, and fans of the San Francisco 49ers are still mourning a little. But it’s about to be a new league year. Everyone has a chance.

One of the ways teams increase those chances is signing free agents—adding veteran players to fill needs and increase strengths. Hopefully landing that impact player puts a team into the playoffs or on a deep postseason run.

There are a lot of things that go into free agency, not the least of which is what a player expects in salary compared to what teams are willing/able to pay. But perhaps the most important is fit—how a player’s arrival changes the franchise and betters its odds of success in 2024.

Now, some of this year’s top free agents you won’t find listed here, because they are “free” only in the loosest possible sense. They will be re-signed or franchise-tagged by their current teams. You can bet the rent on it.

But that doesn’t mean that there won’t be some vets who could make a major dent for a new team who will hit the open market.

Here’s the top one at each position. His best fit. And just for kicks, a projection of what they could reasonably expect on a new contract.

Best Team Fit: Minnesota Vikings

Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears and Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos aren’t free agents (at least not yet), which leaves less competition for Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings in the QB market.

While speaking to Jonathan Adams of Heavy Sports, Cousins admitted that he and wide receiver K.J. Osborn (who is also a free agent) are unsure exactly what the future holds.

“Well, it’s still pretty early,” Cousins said. “We don’t start talking detailed stuff with the Vikings and then eventually with other teams potentially until we get to March. So, we’re still kind of just waiting around. But it’s a little bit of that unknown where you wish things were more solid and decided and you knew how to plan. And we’re both planners. We want to know where things are headed, and you just don’t get to.”

Cousins has been linked to multiple potential suitors, and while the Vikings reportedly have interest in bringing the 35-year-old back, they aren’t willing to fully guarantee his contract this time. They also can’t tag Cousins, as his current deal doesn’t void until after the tag deadline passes.

Can’t say Cousins’ camp isn’t savvy.

There will be all sorts of speculation regarding Cousin’ future, but the best fit for him is where he spent the past six seasons. The Vikings were a 13-win NFC North champion as recently as two years ago. Cousins knows the offense. He knows the players. His family is settled in the area.

With his recovery from a torn Achilles potentially clouding talks on a new deal, the best bet for both player and team is a reunion—say on a two-year deal.

It’s not the most exciting start to this piece. But it’s both the most likely and best fit for Cousins entering his 13th season.

Projected Contract: Two years, $77 million, $40 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Houston Texans

There are a number of big-name running backs set to hit free agency this year, from Derrick Henry to Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler. But Saquon Barkley just turned 27 and seems to have the most in tank left.

Per Tyler Sullivan of CBS Sports, the Giants aren’t inclined to apply the franchise tag to Barkley for a second straight year. And the running back acknowledged that he could be playing for a different team in 2024.

“Once you get to this point,” he said, “you go to your contract negotiation and you go through the tag process, you realize how much of a business it is. And I remember vets always telling me this and you know I believed them, but you don’t really know something until you go through it. So, could I see myself in another uniform? Yeah, it’s possible.”

The problem for Barkley is that the running back position has become devalued. The big names need a combination of three factors—a contender that feels one or two pieces away from a deep playoff run, a team with ample cap space and a team that struggled running the ball in 2023.

The Houston Texans check all three boxes.

The Texans won the AFC South last year and blew out the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card Round. With so many key players on rookie deals, the Texans have over $52 million in cap space. And the Texans were 23rd in the league in rushing last year.

That the state of Texas has no income tax is just icing on the proverbial cake.

Projected Contract: Three years, $30.5 million, $16 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Kansas City Chiefs

It can be argued (rather convincingly) that Tee Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals and Michael Pittman Jr. of the Indianapolis Colts are better pending free agents at wide receiver in 2024. But both are also prime candidates for the franchise tag, so Mike Evans gets the nod as the best wideout with a real shot at moving on this offseason.

Tampa recently took on over $7 million in dead money when Evans’ contract voided, and B/R’s Jordan Schultz wrote on X that not getting a deal done before that happened doesn’t bode well for Evans’ odds of staying with the only NFL team he has ever played for.

“The Buccaneers had a soft deadline today (February 19) to get an extension done with Pro Bowl WR Mike Evans, but both sides remain far apart, sources say,” Schultz said. “Tampa Bay is set to take on $7.4M in 2024 dead money by not getting a deal done today. Talks will continue, but my understanding is Evans is trending toward becoming a free agent, barring an unexpected change in discussions.”

To be clear, the Chiefs aren’t the most likely landing spot for Evans—Kansas City only has about $15 million in cap space and some prominent free agents of its own to sign. And Evans will be 31 when the 2024 season begins.

But Evans has also tallied over 1,000 yards in all 10 of his professional seasons, including 79 catches for 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023. Line Evans up opposite youngster Rashee Rice, and suddenly what was arguably the defending Super Bowl champion’s greatest weakness last year becomes a strength.

Besides, it’s just fun to imagine the rest of the league swearing as Evans puts pen to paper in Kansas City.

Projected Contract: Two years, $42 million, $33 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Houston Texans

After signing a one-year, $6.25 million contract with the Texans last year, Dalton Schultz emerged as a significant contributor. His 635 receiving yards were the second-most of his professional career, and his 10.8 yards-per-reception average was a career high.

While making an appearance on a Houston-area radio station, the 27-year-old made it clear that given his choice, he’d just as soon stay right where he’s at.

“I’d love to be in Houston,” Schultz said while on SportsRadio610. “There’s no doubt about that. I loved my time. Special organization, special quarterback. Love the scheme, love the coaches, I’ve loved everything about Houston. I’m confident that we can find some common ground.”

Frankly, odds are good that Schultz is going to get his wish. As we already mentioned in the Saquon Barkley section, Houston is flush with salary-cap space. If the two sides can’t come to an agreement, the franchise tag for tight ends is just over $12 million. That’s almost double what Schultz made in 2023, but it’s not cost prohibitive, either.

However, while Schultz is a good player, he’s not an elite tight end by any stretch—$12 million for a single season would be an overpay. The wiser course of action is a multiyear deal with a nice raise that affords the team additional financial flexibility in the short term.

But rest assured, barring a “Godfather” offer from another team, the chances of the best tight end in a weak free-agent class going anywhere are next to nil.

Projected Contract: Three years, $27 million, $16.5 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: New York Jets

It’s not that often that a player plays out the entirety of an eight-year contract. But that’s what Tyron Smith just did, polishing off the $97 million extension he signed in 2016. The 33-year-old is the longest-tenured player on the team. And per Calvin Watkins of the Dallas Morning News, Smith would prefer to finish out his career where it started.

“Smith, the longest-tenured player on the Cowboys, wants to play another season with the team, a person familiar with his thinking told the Dallas Morning News,” Watkins said. “Smith, 33, becomes an unrestricted free agent this spring and there is uncertainty about a return.”

It’s entirely possible that Smith will return to Big D. But the Cowboys are over $20 million in the salary-cap red, and the franchise tag of just under $20 million isn’t an option.

If Smith does hit the open market, there’s another team with Super Bowl aspirations that desperately needs to upgrade the offensive line in 2024.

The New York Jets don’t have much cap space at present, but like most teams they will spend the next few weeks freeing some up. Once they do, the No. 1 priority has to be bolstering an offensive line that was hit hard by injuries last year and that Pro Football Network ranked in the NFL’s bottom five last season.

The window for this Jets team isn’t going to stay open that long. And given that these Jets are firmly living in the now, signing a veteran like Smith makes sense—even if his missed time in each of the past eight seasons adds a measure of risk to the deal.

If there wasn’t some risk, Smith would get nowhere near the open market anyway.

Projected Contract: One year, $12 million, $12 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: New York Giants

There isn’t a player in this column who did more to help himself financially in 2023 than offensive guard Kevin Dotson. After being traded from Pittsburgh to the Los Angeles Rams last offseason, Dotson went from a marginal starter to the top guard available in free agency and a player who should be about to receive a massive payday.

While speaking to Brandon Thorn of Turf Show Times, Dotson credited his breakout season with the Rams to moving back to the right side.

“I would say the main thing is just being able to be back at right,” he said. “Being back at right, I didn’t realize how much it made a difference for me until I got to play it again. It just came back to me within a week of practice that I was like the right side is where I’m meant to be. Even in Pittsburgh, they said my best years were when I got to play the right. Switching to left, I feel like I didn’t do bad at left, but it just made sense for me to be at right. When they switched me to left, it’s something that I had to learn totally new. I think a lot of offensive linemen know that going from right to left when you play right since high school, you have to do a lot of re-wiring. Being able to get back to right made a huge difference for me.”

It’s possible the Rams will bring Dotson back, but Los Angeles isn’t expected to use the franchise tag, and if Dotson hits the open market, there’s at least one other team that should take a hard run at him.

Simply put, the New York Giants have to upgrade an offensive line that surrendered a staggering 85 sacks in 2023. Inside at guard. Outside at tackle. Unless the G-Men overhaul the offensive front, nothing they do in free agency or the draft will matter even a little.

Projected Contract: Four years, $66.5 million, $41 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Las Vegas Raiders

Many might expect to see Connor Williams of the Miami Dolphins listed here. But after tearing his ACL late in the 2023 season, Williams’ early-season availability casts his free agency into some doubt.

When the Raiders traded Pro Bowler Rodney Hudson to the Arizona Cardinals in 2021, it sent more than one eyebrow skyward. But it turned out to be a savvy move—Hudson is out of the league, and replacement Andre James has become a quality young center just now entering the prime of his career.

“Turning the center position over to James and trading stalwart veteran Rodney Hudson to the Arizona Cardinals turned out to be a remarkable bet from the Raiders, and Las Vegas should keep James in the fold to help Aidan O’Connell or whoever is under center as the future franchise quarterback in Las Vegas,” he said. “James earned career-best marks as both a pass protector and run blocker in 2023, grading out above 70.0 in both facets with proficiency on zone and gap rushes, as well. James will be just 27 years old when he signs his second veteran contract, and he offers a very high floor with room for more growth.”

The Raiders have no shortage of holes on the roster, and the quarterback question will tower over the franchise until the team upgrades on Aidan “Not The Guy” O’Connell. But Vegas has over $35 million in cap space, and a new deal for James shouldn’t be a bank-breaker.

Taking a step forward as a franchise by adding free agents won’t benefit the Raiders if they take two steps back by losing their own quality in-house free agents.

Projected Contract: Three years, $27.5 million, $15 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Los Angeles Rams

Carolina’s Brian Burns and Jacksonville’s Josh Allen are probably more valuable free agents than Hunter—both are considerably younger. But both are also exceedingly unlikely to leave their present teams in 2024. They will be re-signed or franchise-tagged. However, Hunter’s 30th birthday is approaching, and if the Vikings bring back Kirk Cousins, re-signing Hunter could be tricky.

The Los Angeles Rams were a surprise playoff team in 2023, and that surprise could lead to a more aggressive offseason strategy from general manager Les Snead in 2024. The reality is that the Rams’ window to contend won’t stay open that much longer. The team has almost $28 million in cap space and its first Round 1 pick since drafting Jared Goff first overall in 2016.

The Rams also have a gaping hole on the edge—a hole that ESPN’s Matt Bowen believes the Rams should look to fill by signing Hunter.

“The Rams have money to spend in free agency, and filling the edge rushing need should be a priority,” he said. “Hunter’s 16.5 sacks with the Vikings in 2023 were the fifth most in the league, and he also forced four fumbles. Adding Hunter would give the Rams a productive veteran force opposite Byron Young — who had eight sacks as a rookie — with Aaron Donald on the interior. That’s how you upgrade a pass rush.”

Youngster Byron Young showed some potential last year, and restricted free agent Michael Hoecht is a serviceable pro. But the Rams recorded the eighth-fewest sacks in the league last year (41), and if Los Angeles is going to catch the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West, that has to change.

Projected Contract: Three years, $63 million, $41.5 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Cincinnati Bengals

Leonard Williams isn’t the best defensive tackle hitting the market in 2024. He’s just the best interior lineman with a real shot at leaving—Chris Jones of the Chiefs, Justin Madubuike of the Ravens and Christian Wilkins of the Dolphins will probably be extended and/or tagged by their current teams.

This isn’t to say that the Seattle Seahawks won’t make an effort to keep Leonard Williams in the fold after trading for the 29-year-old in-season last year. But the Seahawks are upside down against the cap. And the tag for defensive tackles is almost $21 million in 2024.

If Williams does hit the open market, the Bengals would be well-served to kick the tires. According to Paul Dehner of The Athletic, the interior of the defensive line is the team’s biggest area of need this year.

“The Bengals’ pass rush amounted to Trey Hendrickson or bust last year,” he said. “Hendrickson racked up 17.5 sacks and 79 pressures. Sam Hubbard was second in sacks all the way back at six and B.J. Hill second in pressures with 42. Plus, they could lose defensive tackle DJ Reader, who tore his quad in December, in free agency. They need consistent pressure up the middle to complement the edges. They need somebody capable of providing a fraction of Reader’s Pro Bowl-level production. They need a disruptive complement for Hill at three technique. Essentially, they need all the help they can afford.”

Signing Williams and Saquon Barkley and potentially retaining the services of free-agent receiver Tee Higgins wouldn’t be an easy feat to pull off, even with upward of $60 million in cap space. The Ja’Marr Chase extension looms, and it could reset the wideout market.

But the window in Cincinnati won’t stay open forever. If the Bengals are serious about challenging teams like the Ravens and Chiefs again in 2024, they can’t sit on their hands this spring.

Projected Contract: Three years, $50.5 million, $36.5 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Seattle Seahawks

The Baltimore Ravens would no doubt like to retain Queen. But that may not be financially feasible—the team has to re-up Justin Madubuike (and others) this offseason and is already paying big-time money to an off-ball linebacker in Roquan Smith.

The Seahawks are hurting for cap space. They are also potentially hurting even worse at linebacker—both three-down starters from 2023 (Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks) are set to hit free agency.

As Field Yates wrote for ESPN, if Seattle chooses to reset at the position, Queen’s prior relationship with new head coach Mike Macdonald makes the 24-year-old an attractive target.

“I suspect you’ll hear buzz of this nature involving any Ravens defensive free agent, as new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald architected a brilliant defense in Baltimore,” Yates said. “But the Queen match is particularly pertinent as Macdonald was Queen’s position coach in Baltimore early in his career. Seattle has two key starters who are going to be free agents (Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks), and this draft class is not deep on inside linebackers.”

In theory, it makes a ton of sense—in Queen, Macdonald would get a defensive centerpiece who is already intimately familiar with his scheme and who could wear the “green dot” helmet communicator and make the defensive play-calls.

The sticking point here would be the cheese. Queen is coming off a career-high 133 total tackles, his 13.5 sacks in four seasons shows some A-gap pass-rushing chops, and his age will make him an attractive target.

But his age could also allow the Seahawks to sign a longer-term deal that affords Seattle more cap space in the short term.

Can you say void years?

Projected Contract: Four years, $71 million, $52 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions came within a game of the franchise’s first Super Bowl last year. But the team’s 27th-ranked pass defense was a major liability all season—largely because the cornerbacks in Motown were average on a good day and awful on a bad one.

L’Jarius Sneed’s 2023 season was anything but average. One year after piling up 108 total tackles, Sneed’s coverage play excelled—he allowed just 51 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed, with a passer rating against of just 56.2.

Sneed has been mentioned more than once as a potential franchise-tag candidate. But ESPN’s Dan Graziano believes that Kansas City has actually been preparing for the eventuality of Sneed’s departure for some time.

“Sneed is one of the league’s top corners and a key part of the Chiefs’ defense (nine pass breakups last season and 10 career interceptions), so he wouldn’t be easy to replace,” Graziano wrote. “But the Chiefs have drafted four cornerbacks in the past two drafts, including 2022 first-rounder Trent McDuffie, who appears more than ready to take over as the No. 1 corner if Sneed leaves. Their draft strategy has been preparing them for the possibility of this happening. (Chris) Jones, who is the key to their pass rush and a top-five defender in the league, seems to be more difficult to replace than Sneed.”

We have actually seen this movie before—Kansas City let Charvarius Ward walk in 2022 (the year they drafted McDuffie) rather than dole out a big contract. And if Sneed does make it to the open market, Detroit has over $50 million in cap space with which to take a run at him and add an impact player on defense.

Projected Contract: Three years, $54 million, $37 million guaranteed

Best Team Fit: Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers enter the offseason with more than a little positive momentum. But there are also problems. The Pack are about $5 million in the red against the salary cap. The team’s top three safeties (Jonathan Owens, Darnell Savage and Rudy Ford) are all free agents. And per Matt Schneidman of The Athletic, even if they weren’t, an upgrade at the position would be a priority this offseason.

“The Packers’ top three safeties from 2023 are all scheduled to be unrestricted free agents,” he wrote. “Green Bay needed upgrades at the position, anyway, and that was before the team hired Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley as its new defensive coordinator. Hafley loves one-high safety looks, which require an athletic playmaking safety deep in the middle of the field on an island. Whether the Packers address the position early in the draft, in free agency or via trade, doing so is atop Green Bay’s priority list this offseason.”

Antoine Winfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kyle Dugger of the New England Patriots are probably the top free agents in a deep safety group, but both are also probable candidates for the $16.2 million franchise tag at the position.

Curl doesn’t have the notoriety that Winfield or Dugger does, but he was a bright spot in a dismal year for the Commanders in 2023, amassing a career-high 115 total tackles. Curl is capable of playing both safety spots. And at 24, he has not even hit the prime of his career yet.

Curl might not be a big name yet. But as a key cog for the Packers, he could be.

Projected Contract: Three years, $37 million, $18.5 million guaranteed