More Free Picks on the Inside the Lines Blog

MLB Best HR Bets 7/23

José Ramírez (CLE) +390, FanDuel

Ramírez has three home runs over his last four games and now has a homer in 7 of his last 12. Zach Eflin is making his first start in nearly a month, and when healthy this season, he hasn’t been sharp—allowing 16 home runs in just 62 innings pitched. In his last 3 starts alone, he gave up 27 hits and 5 home runs. We set the line at +300 for Ramírez to hit a HR.

Christian Yelich (MIL) +650, BetMGM

Luis Castillo has been dominant over his last 4 starts, not allowing a single home run during that stretch. Still, getting +650 for Yelich to homer is worth a longshot play. Yelich has 41 plate appearances against Castillo in his career, going 6-for-29 with a home run and 11 walks. That familiarity should work in Yelich’s favor. Castillo allowed 1.3 HR/9 over the last two seasons, though that number is down to 0.9 HR/9 this year. We’re taking the angle that Castillo is due to give up a homer or two today. We set Yelich’s line at +410 to homer.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) +400, BetMGM

Lindor is 0-for-28 over his last 6 games, but we’re buying low on him today. The Angels are going with a bullpen game, and their bullpen owns the third-worst ERA in the majors at 5.06. They also lead MLB in home runs allowed with 59. Lindor has a .843 OPS at home this season, so if you’re going to buy low during a slump, doing it at home makes sense. We set Lindor’s line at +340 to hit a HR.

Last Month of Home Run Picks

Below is a recap of the past month of Home Run picks (over +32 units). You can see based on the units (-1u if they did not hit a HR) which hit and which did not. It does not include the 3-1 +1.68 unit Home Run Derby. You can visit the blog to see these picks when they were originally posted.