Novak Djokovic would likely have felt his chances of winning a record-extending 25th Grand Slam at the 2026 French Open improve after Carlos Alcaraz withdrew from the tournament. After all, the Serb had already proven earlier this year that he could still take down the very best, producing a thrilling victory over Jannik Sinner in the semifinals of the Australian Open.

But now that the Roland Garros draw is officially out, the Serbian’s road to the title suddenly looks far more complicated. With several dangerous names stacked along his side of the bracket, the former world No. 1 appears to have been handed one of the toughest paths in the tournament.

After his heroics in Melbourne, where he fell to Carlos Alcaraz in the final, Djokovic has played in only a couple of events. He was in action at Indian Wells, where he lost to Jack Draper in the fourth round in what was an extremely high-quality match. The Serb played only one clay-court match this year, losing to Dino Prizmic in three sets at the Italian Open.

As per the official draw, Novak Djokovic will open his French Open campaign against home favorite Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round. It will be the pair’s first-ever meeting, and while Djokovic remains one of the greatest returners the sport has seen, Perricard’s huge serve could still make things tricky, especially with the Paris crowd firmly behind the Frenchman.

If Djokovic gets through that challenge, he is likely to face another French player, Valentin Royer, in the next round. On paper, that matchup appears more manageable for the three-time Roland Garros champion, but the opening stages already suggest that the Serb won’t be getting an easy ride in Paris this year.

The next two rounds will be the other set of tough challenges for the Serb, as he will potentially take on Brazilian sensation Joao Fonseca in the third round. This will be a marquee match as the rising young star goes up against one of the greatest players in the game.

Fonseca has built a reputation for drawing huge crowd support, and if he meets Djokovic in Paris, the Brazilian will likely back himself to pull off the biggest win of his career with his explosive forehand game. Djokovic’s experience should still give him the edge, but it won’t be an easy outing.

Another tricky third-round test could come from Dino Prizmic, who pushed Djokovic hard at the Italian Open earlier this month.

And if the Serb gets through all that, Casper Ruud could await in the fourth round. The 24x Grand Slam Champion leads their head-to-head 5-1, including a win in the 2023 Roland Garros final, but Ruud heads into Paris in strong clay-court form after reaching the Italian Open final.

Should Djokovic go past the four rounds, it will potentially be either Andrey Rublev or Alex De Minaur in the quarterfinals. De Minaur’s form on clay has looked iffy this year, with the Australian having a 5-4 win-loss record on the surface. Rublev, on the other hand, reached the final in Barcelona and had a quarterfinal finish at the Italian Open. Djokovic, however, has favorable matchups against both, with 3-1 and 5-1 head-to-head records against De Minaur and Rublev, respectively.

In all likelihood, it will be second-seeded Alexander Zverev who faces Djokovic in the semifinals. The Serb has a 9-5 lead in the head-to-head, including a quarterfinal win against the German player at the French Open last year.

And should the Serb brave through all the hurdles, it will potentially be Jannik Sinner in the final, who by then would potentially be on a 35-match win streak. Though the Serbian defeated the Italian in Melbourne this year, but it is Sinner who leads 6-5 in the head-to-head.

Fitness would be a key for the 39-year-old at Roland Garros this year, but by his own admission, the Serb is not content with his preparation ahead of the French Open.

Novak Djokovic Gets Honest About His French Open Preparation

After his loss to Dino Prizmic at the Italian Open, Djokovic was pragmatic about his preparations for the French Open. The Serb was candid about playing with injuries, stating that he had to deal with some sort of injury on a constant basis over the last few years. However, this time around, he has played only one clay-court match, which by his own admission might be inadequate for the Grand Slam.

Talking to the press, he said, “It’s not an ideal preparation, to be honest. I don’t recall the last time I had in the last couple of years a preparation where I didn’t have any kind of physical issues or health issues coming into the tournament. There’s always something. Kind of a new reality that I have to deal with. It is frustrating. At the same time, it’s my decision to still perform in that kind of state and conditions. It is what it is.”

However, the Serb is not leaving any stones unturned, as he has hired compatriot and Davis Cup teammate, Victor Troicki, in his team to help him. Troicki was on his team when the Serb won gold at the Paris Olympics, where he had to play one of the best matches of his life against Carlos Alcaraz in the final.

For Novak Djokovic to mount a serious challenge at French Open, fitness and early-round efficiency will be key. He will need to manage his body well and find a way past his opening opponents without too much strain.

However, given the quality of opposition in his path, producing routine straight-set wins at this stage of his career may prove to be a tall order for the Serb.