A rare Week 1 conference battle takes place on Labor Day as the No. 19 SMU Mustangs visit the Florida State Seminoles. The Noles (1-0) kicked off their season with a Week 0 victory over New Mexico State by a score of 34-17. FSU went 5-7 overall last season, including a 2-6 mark in the ACC. The Mustangs (0-0) went 9-4 a year ago, with a 6-2 conference mark, as they finished 2025 ranked 12th in the nation. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $200 in bonus bets as a new user after $5+ in wagers here:

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. SMU won the only prior meeting, which came in 2024. The Mustangs are 3-point favorites in the latest SMU vs. Florida State odds, while the over/under is 54.5 points. Before making any Florida State vs. SMU picks, check out the SMU vs. FSU predictions from SportsLine expert Josh Nagel.

Nagel is a Reno-based analyst and radio host who has worked in the sports handicapping industry for more than 20 years. SportsLine’s assistant managing editor has covered the wagering industry on a variety of platforms and has won numerous sports handicapping contests with his college football betting picks. Nagel is 8-3 (+485) over his last 11 picks involving SMU at betting sites.

Now, Nagel has analyzed SMU vs. Florida State and revealed his best bets. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Florida State vs. SMU:

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Top Florida State vs. SMU predictions

After analyzing SMU vs. FSU, Nagel is leaning Under (53.5) on the total at the best betting apps. The Under hit in FSU’s Week 0 game, as the total hasn’t been reached in six of the team’s last seven games dating back to last year. SMU also took part in lower-scoring games in 2025, as the Under posted a 9-4 record for the Mustangs. Even more trends back the Under hitting on Monday as it is 7-3 over SMU’s last 10 games as a favorite, and the Under was 6-2 last year for the Seminoles in ACC contests.

Both quarterbacks’ weaknesses also indicate this being a lower-scoring game, starting with SMU’s Kevin Jennings throwing 13 interceptions a year ago. Just two players in all of FBS had more picks, while Ashton Daniels of Florida State is among the least efficient passers in the sport. His career passing efficiency (121) is the fourth-worst in college football since 2023 and he has thrown picks in five straight home games. See Nagel’s analysis and spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make SMU vs. Florida State picks

In addition to leaning Under on the total, Nagel has also identified a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins FSU vs. SMU, and which side of the spread is a must-bet? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the SMU vs. Florida State spread to jump on, all from the proven expert that’s on an 8-3 run (+485) over his last 11 SMU picks, and find out.