The Dallas Cowboys are a huge favorite going into Thursday night’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which isn’t all that surprising. After all, the Buccaneers have exactly zero wins and they have to hit the road on a short week to play in a city where they almost never win. 

The Cowboys are 13-2 all-time at home against the Buccaneers, which is the second-best winning percentage for any team at home against one opponent (minimum 15 games played). In those 15 games, the Buccaneers averaged just 13.2 points per game, the second-worst mark since the 1970 merger for a road team in a single city. 

And let’s not forget that the Bucs are 1-9 in their past 10 primetime games dating back to the start of the 2023 season. Also, the Bucs will have an undrafted rookie at quarterback in Jalon Daniels, who will be making his first career start on the road. 

The deck certainly seems to be stacked against Tampa Bay, but there is one stat that should have the Cowboys worried. Going into this season, there had been 10 teams in NFL history that:

• started 0-4 
• Were outscored by a combined total of 21 points or fewer in those four games

Those 10 teams combined to go 9-1 in Week 5. The Buccaneers are now the 11th team to meet those qualifications. Yes, they’re 0-4, but all four losses have come in close games that were decided by seven points or fewer. 

Week 1: Bengals 33-27 over Buccaneers 
Week 2: Browns 23-19 over Buccaneers
Week 3: Vikings 23-16 over Buccaneers
Week 4: Packers 17-14 over Buccaneers

The Bucs have been close in each game. They just haven’t been able to get over the hump to pick up their first win. Overall, they’ve been outscored by just 20 points in those four games combined. 

Of the previous 10 teams to start 0-4 while being outscored by 21 points or less, six of them went on to win by at least a touchdown in Week 5. 

1952 Steelers (Road): Pittsburgh 34-28 over Chicago Cardinals
1961 Steelers (Home): Pittsburgh 20-0 over Washington
1974 Lions (Home): Detroit 17-13 over San Francisco
1991 Buccaneers (Road): Detroit 31-3 over Tampa Bay
1998 Bears (Home): Chicago 31-27 over Detroit
2000 Patriots (Road): New England 28-19 over Denver
2005 Packers (Home): Green Bay 52-3 over New Orleans
2011 Vikings (Home): Minnesota 34-10 over Arizona
2012 Saints (Home): New Orleans 31-24 over San Diego Chargers
2017 Chargers (Road): Los Angeles 27-22 over Giants

Not only are the 10 teams 9-1, but they’re also 3-1 on the road, where the Bucs will be on Thursday night. 

So why is this happening? It’s hard to say for sure, but when you’re losing close games, that gives you confidence that you can play with anyone and if you combine that with the desperation that comes with being 0-4, it sets the stage for an upset. 

Of course, as you can see, the only 0-4 team in this situation that didn’t win was the 1991 Buccaneers, so Tampa Bay knows first-hand that a win on Thursday night isn’t a lock. As a matter of fact, it would be a total surprise if the Bucs won, but if they do pull off the upset, don’t say we didn’t warn you.