The French Open 2026 draw is out, and last year’s finalists, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka, learned the probable paths they need to take to either defend or win the title. Sabalenka enters as the top seed, while Gauff is the fourth seed, and both will look to get past the early challenges with relative ease. However, both face a similar threat: a potential final against Iga Swiatek, a four-time French Open champion on the charge.

Gauff began her season well, winning three of her four singles matches at the United Cup, including one over Iga Swiatek. At the Australian Open, she reached the quarterfinal, where she could win only three games against an in-form Elina Svitolina. The Ukrainian once again stopped Gauff in the semifinal of the Dubai Tennis Championships, which looked like a promising run. Gauff’s best hard-court run came in Miami, where she reached the final, falling short against Aryna Sabalenka.

In the clay court season, Gauff had a lukewarm start, as she won only one match in Stuttgart and lost to Linda Noskova in the fourth round in Madrid. However, her form clicked at the Italian Open, where she won against the likes of Iva Jovic, Mirra Andreeva, and Sorana Cirstea to reach the final, but the Svitolina puzzle was something that Gauff could not crack yet again, losing to the Ukrainian in a tight three-set battle.

Gauff opens against compatriot Taylor Townsend—a player who has beaten her before. If the head-to-head history is anything to go by, this could be a potentially tricky start for the fourth seed, as she has lost the only match she has played against Townsend, on clay at the 2019 Charleston Open. Should she go past the first hurdle, her second round opponent will potentially be Dalma Galfi. The Hungarian did have a third-round run as the qualifier at the Madrid Open, but otherwise has no other notable results this year. This would be her first meeting against Gauff, which should not be much of a challenge for the American player.

Going past the first few rounds, Gauff’s first-seeded opponent in the competition will potentially be 28th-seeded Anastasia Potapova. Potapova has a 21-12 win-loss record this season, with a runner-up finish in Linz and a semifinal run in Madrid. Potapova leads their last two meetings (2023), though the all-time record is tied 2-2.

If Gauff advances, she faces 14th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in round four. This could play in Gauff’s favor, as Alexandrova has won only 6 matches this year and has a 1-4 record on clay. Also, Gauff has a 4-1 head-to-head lead over the Russian, including a 6-0, 7-5 win over the Russian in the same round of last year’s French Open.

If seedings hold, sixth seed Amanda Anisimova awaits in the quarterfinals. Anisimova has a 2-1 win-loss record against Gauff, but the latter’s one victory came on clay. However, one key factor in this match would be Anisimova’s fitness, as she has not played a competitive clay-court match this year and has been out of the Tour since March.

Should Gauff win, the semifinal could potentially be a blockbuster as she might face top-seeded Aryna Sabalenka in a rematch of last year’s final. The head-to-head is 7-6 in favor of Sabalenka, but the Belarusian has suffered unexpected early losses in Madrid and Rome and has injury concerns heading into Roland Garros.

If Coco Gauff moves past all her challenges, then either Iga Swiatek or Elena Rybakina is her likely opponent in the final. Rybakina is having a tremendous season in 2026, having won the Australian Open and finished runner-up at Indian Wells. She has a 9-2 win-loss record on clay this year, winning the title in Stuttgart. On the other hand, Swiatek has an 18-9 record this season, with her best result being a semifinal run at the Italian Open, where she lost to Elina Svitolina.

Gauff has a 1-0 head-to-head record against Rybakina, having won their only match in Toronto in 2022. Swiatek has an 11-5 record against Gauff, but the American has won the duo’s last four meetings. The Pole has beaten the American at the French Open three times, including in the 2022 final.

Should Swiatek reach the final, beating her to defend her French Open title might be the toughest job for Gauff. Swiatek has been in mixed form on clay recently, but having the tournament four times in 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024, she knows how to find momentum.

Aryna Sabalenka’s Path to Glory in Paris

Last year’s beaten finalist, Aryna Sabalenka, also has her work cut out as she starts her campaign against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. The Belarusian has won both prior meetings and should advance comfortably. The top seed will potentially face the local favorite, Elsa Jacquemot, in the second round. Should that match happen, the crowd will be against Sabalenka, but the Frenchwoman has a poor 5-14 win-loss record this year, and it should be an easy matchup for the World No.1. In terms of seeded opponents, Sabalenka’s first challenge would be 31st-seeded Cristina Bucsa who has a 0-3 win-loss record on clay this year, and has lost both her matches against the World No.1.

The potential fourth-round opponents for Aryna Sabalenka would be either 16th-seeded Naomi Osaka or 17th-seeded Iva Jovic. Jovic started her season well on hard courts but has a modest 6-6 record on clay this year, heading into Roland Garros. Sabalenka and Jovic have met once previously, with the Belarusian triumphing in straight sets during the Australian Open this year. If it is Osaka, then it will be a blockbuster clash between the current and former World No. 1 players. Even though the Japanese player does not have a great record at the French Open and has lost to Sabalenka twice already this year, their match in Madrid was a tight three-setter.

Should Sabalenka win her matches, she will face one of Victoria Mboko or Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals, should the seedings hold. Both matchups are favorable for the top seed, as she has a 2-0 and 9-3 head-to-head record against the Canadian and American players, respectively. A win in the last eight would see Sabalenka face Gauff in the blockbuster semifinal clash, where a tough three-set match is expected. If Sabalenka reaches the final, she will likely face either Elena Rybakina or Iga Swiatek.

Sabalenka has a 10-7 win-loss record against Rybakina, but as the Australian Open final showed earlier this year, the Kazakh is the only one who can go toe-to-toe with the Belarusian in terms of power.

Swiatek does have an 8-5 lead in the head-to-head against Sabalenka, but the Belarusian dethroned the Pole from her French Open title last year, which included a bagel set in the semifinal.

Swiatek has recently been training with Francisco Roig, Rafael Nadal’s former long-time coach. The Pole also spent time at the Rafael Nadal academy to improve her technique on clay courts. Having last won in 2024, she will be raring to beat last season’s finalists and add one more title to her tally.

Given the draw, only one of Gauff or Sabalenka will compete in the final. Gauff has a tricky draw, with opponents who have competitive head-to-heads against her, whereas Sabalenka should be able to reach the semifinals. Gauff’s scrappy style or Sabalenka’s dominant style, which one prevails at the end, will be a keen matter of interest over the next few weeks on the Parisian clay.