The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees just wrapped up a marquee head-to-head showdown which, given the long-term outlook of those respective franchises, may well be MLB’s most intriguing regular-season series on an annual basis for the next five years.

Before we dive into this ranking of teams best set up for success for the next half-decade, it should be noted this isn’t meant to be some sort of “way too early 2028 World Series odds” projection.

It’s more a ranking of which teams are most likely to appear in at least one ALCS/NLCS within the next half-decade, with those appearing to be in good shape for 2028 (and beyond) getting more consideration than the ones with a window of opportunity that is liable to close in the next year or two.

An array of factors went into the ranking process, including:

For what it’s worth, the payroll portion is of least importance and did not keep Baltimore, Cleveland or Pittsburgh from cracking the top 10. It’s more of a bonus factor for the teams willing to spend than it is an indictment against the penny-pinchers. But it does need to be taken into consideration.

Boston Red Sox

Rafael Devers is signed through 2033, and none of Brayan Bello, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Tristan Casas, Jarren Duran or Kutter Crawford is hitting the open market any time soon. The Red Sox also have a pair of tantalizing prospects in Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony and a willingness to put together a top-10 payroll on an annual basis. They’ve been sputtering around .500 for three years now, but the future may be bright.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have more top 100 prospects (seven) than any other team in Reuter’s rankings, and they do have a decent stockpile of controllable assets already at the MLB level. Dansby Swanson and Shōta Imanaga are the only ones actually signed beyond 2026, but Javier Assad, Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown are all many moons away from reaching free agency.

Milwaukee Brewers

Given what a mess they appeared to be in just this past offseason, the Brewers have impressed with the likes of Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang leading the charge. Both Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick have disappointed compared to the hype that preceded them, but that quartet, a solid crop of prospects and another five seasons of Christian Yelich could contend for the foreseeable future. They’ve got to find pitching, though.

New York Mets

Brandon Nimmo is signed through 2030; Francisco Lindor through 2031. And if Steve Cohen lands Juan Soto on a long-term deal this offseason, that changes things considerably. As things stand, Brett Baty’s continued inability to live up to the hype while Francisco Alvarez, Ronny Mauricio, Kodai Senga and Edwin Diaz all recover from injury for a team going nowhere fast leaves the Mets just shy of the top 10—even with a willingness to spend like no other.

Texas Rangers

This lineup could be special for the next half-decade, but the Rangers are going to need to replace pretty much the entirety of their elderly pitching staff in the next three years. Maybe Jack Leiter, Owen White and Cole Winn eventually pan out, but they’ve each gotten out to rough starts to their MLB careers.

Washington Nationals

In James Wood and Dylan Crews, the Nationals have arguably the two best prospects who have yet to make their MLB debuts. Is that enough, though? CJ Abrams could be a legitimate building block while Jacob Young and Mitchell Parker have been pleasant surprises as rookies, but this team is more than just two stud outfielders away from vying for another World Series.

Current Record: 32-34

Long-Term Contracts: Hunter Greene (through 2029)

Controllable Assets: SS Elly De La Cruz, 2B Matt McLain, 1B/OF Spencer Steer, OF TJ Friedl, OF Will Benson, OF Stuart Fairchild, RHP Graham Ashcraft, LHP Andrew Abbott, 1B/DH Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Top 100 Prospects: RHP Rhett Lowder (25), 3B Noelvi Marté (35), 3B Cam Collier (91)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $104.9 million (23rd of 30)

After a rough first 50 games of the season, the Reds are finally starting to put up runs in bunches like we thought they would and have stormed all the way back into the wild card picture.

De La Cruz has cooled off considerably after shouldering the load early in the season, but Steer, Friedl, Benson and Fairchild have all been major contributors in recent weeks. All five should be key members of the lineup for the next five years.

That lineup will be even more potent when McLain returns from the shoulder injury that has kept him out of the entire season thus far. And don’t forget about Marté, who will be eligible to return from suspension (PEDs) by the end of June. The crown jewel that Cincinnati got back in the Luis Castillo trade two summers ago hit .316 in 35 games played last fall.

As always, though, the big question with the Reds is the pitching.

Since the Great American Ballpark opened in 2003, Cincinnati has had almost the least valuable pitching staff in the majors. But in Greene and Abbott, it should at least have a solid one-two punch for years to come. It will also have Nick Lodolo for a few more years, though he is not listed above as he is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2027 campaign.

If the Reds can come up with one more semi-reliable starter on an annual basis, they’ll be in business as possibly the NL Central team to beat for the next half-decade.

Current Record: 31-34

Long-Term Contracts: OF Bryan Reynolds (thru 2031), 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (thru 2030), RHP Mitch Keller (thru 2028)

Controllable Assets: RHP Jared Jones, 2B Nick Gonzales, SS Oneil Cruz, C Henry Davis, RHP Bailey Falter, RHP Quinn Priester, IF Jared Triolo, RHP Luis Ortiz, OF Jack Suwinski

Top 100 Prospects: RHP Paul Skenes (1), RHP Bubba Chandler (69), 2B Termarr Johnson (85), LHP Anthony Solometo (96)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $65.2 million (28th of 30)

Between the long history of ranking bottom-five in the league in spending and the equally long history of—save for a blip of postseason-reaching competence from 2013-15—losing seasons, any reluctance you might have about getting intrigued by Pittsburgh’s future potential is completely warranted.

However, with Skenes already looking every bit as good as advertised—joining a rotation in which Keller is an established All-Star, Falter is having a breakout year and Jones has been “possible NL ROY good” in his own right—there is something legitimately brewing in the Steel City.

Beyond what should be a strong rotation for the next half-decade, the nucleus of Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz and Gonzales in the lineup is promising. And if Davis ever starts to hit like he has in the minors and lives up to the hype of being the 2021 No. 1 overall pick, even better.

Whether they can find any more room in the budget to sign Skenes (or anyone else) to a long-term deal remains to be seen.

Without making any more considerable investments, though, the Pirates could have a run from 2026-28 on par with what they managed at Andrew McCutchen’s peak in the mid-2010s.

Current Record: 37-30

Long-Term Contracts: OF Julio Rodríguez (thru at least 2029, possibly 2034), RHP Luis Castillo (thru 2027 with a vesting option for 2028), RHP Andrés Muñoz (thru 2028)

Controllable Assets: RHP George Kirby, RHP Bryce Miller, RHP Bryan Woo, RHP Gregory Santos, RHP Matt Brash, RHP Jackson Kowar, OF Luke Raley, OF Dominic Canzone, RHP Emerson Hancock

Top 100 Prospects: C Harry Ford (31), SS Cole Young (34), SS Colt Emerson (44), OF Lazaro Montes (52), 1B Tyler Locklear (100)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $113.6 million (20th of 30)

All six pitchers who have started a game for the Mariners this season are controllable through at least 2027. Logan Gilbert will become a free agent that offseason and Castillo might opt for free agency, too. But the other four are signed beyond then.

This has already been one of the best rotations in baseball since the beginning of last season, and none of it is going anywhere any time soon. Neither is the closer, Muñoz, so this is going to be a potent staff for a while.

We’ll see about the hitting, though.

Rodríguez seems to have snapped out of what was a disappointing first 40 games of the season and is a great foundational block for this franchise, probably for the next decade-plus. However, save for Raley and Cal Raleigh (the latter under team control through 2027), the supporting cast has been underwhelming and doesn’t have anywhere near the long-term promise that some of these other franchises have.

The M’s do have a nice stockpile of hitting prospects, but most of them are likely at least two years away from getting to the big leagues and may never fulfil that top-100 potential.

That said, if the starting pitchers stay healthy and Rodríguez continues to play like a perennial All-Star, that’s one hell of a starting point for a club that should win at least 54 percent of its games over the next five years.

Current Record: 34-34

Long-Term Contracts: OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (thru 2034), 3B Manny Machado (thru 2033), IF Xander Bogaerts (thru 2033), 1B Jake Cronenworth (thru 2030), RHP Yu Darvish (thru 2028), LHP Yuki Matsui (thru 2028)

Controllable Assets: SS/OF Jackson Merrill, RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Randy Vásquez, RHP Adam Mazur, RHP Jeremiah Estrada, C Luis Campusano

Top 100 Prospects: C Ethan Salas (9), LHP Robby Snelling (17), RHP Dylan Lesko (56)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $199.7 million (5th of 30)

Trading away a star like Juan Soto during an offseason in which you shave well over $50 million off the payroll is usually the ceremonial waving of the white flag before a rebuild. Such was the case when the A’s traded away Matt Olson in March 2022, as well as when the White Sox dealt Dylan Cease this past February.

With the Padres, however, it was more so a reluctant acceptance of the fact that a long-term deal with Soto just wasn’t going to be feasible when they already had so much money tied up in making Tatis, Machado and Bogaerts their big three for the next decade.

The future is still bright in San Diego, though.

Merrill is having a solid rookie season, making a mostly seamless transition from shortstop in the minors to centerfield in the majors. Waldron’s knuckleball is a fun talking point every time he takes the mound. And Estrada has been dynamite out of the bullpen with a sub-1.00 ERA and a nearly 15.0 K/9. That trio breaking out has further strengthened a strong core.

Like Seattle, though, San Diego’s top 100 prospects aren’t coming any time soon. Salas just turned 18 this month and is hitting below the Mendoza Line at high-A ball. Lesko has a 6.35 ERA on the same team as Salas. And Snelling hasn’t been much better with a 5.14 ERA at Double-A. We’re not expecting any of them to contribute to a playoff push this fall.

But this team could be exceptional in the 2026-28 timeframe, especially if they manage to sign Cease and/or Michael King to a long-term deal after trading for both pitchers this winter.

Current Record: 45-20

Long-Term Contracts: Bryce Harper (thru 2031), Trea Turner (thru 2033), Aaron Nola (thru 2030)

Controllable Assets: Cristopher Sánchez, Johan Rojas, Orion Kerkering, Kody Clemens

Top 100 Prospects: RHP Andrew Painter (23), SS Aidan Miller (40), RHP Mick Abel (55), OF Justin Crawford (58), SS Starlyn Caba (81)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $226.3 million (4th of 30)

The big question with the Phillies’ five-year outlook is how well that core of long-term contracts holds up into its mid-30s.

This was also the big question when they were on top of the NL East in the 2008-11 timeframe—before they got old, bottomed out and missed the postseason for a decade straight.

Maybe they’ll manage things differently this time around, though. Better yet, maybe Harper and Turner will age more gracefully than Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins did.

One thing’s for sure, though: This team is great right now, and it should be in fantastic shape next season, too, with only Jeff Hoffman and Spencer Turnbull hitting free agency this winter.

Beyond that, we shall see.

They’re slated to lose J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez after 2025, Alec Bohm, Taijuan Walker, José Alvarado and Nick Castellanos after 2026 and Zack Wheeler, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh after 2027—at which point Harper, Turner and Nola will all be entering their age-35 seasons with several expensive years left on each contract.

The Phillies have solid prospects, though, and repurposing the $20 million-ish salaries that each of Realmuto, Schwarber, Walker and Castellanos is receiving could be massive.

The Mets have shown in recent years that a willingness to spend big doesn’t necessarily translate to wins, but it’s reasonable to assume Philadelphia’s ability to spend will help it remain an annual contender.

Current Record: 42-22

Long-Term Contracts: 3B José Ramírez (thru 2028), 2B Andrés Giménez (thru 2030), RHP Emmanuel Clase (thru 2028), RHP Trevor Stephan (thru 2028)

Controllable Assets: RHP Tanner Bibee, C Bo Naylor, LHP Logan Allen, OF Will Brennan, IF Gabriel Arias, IF Brayan Rocchio, RHP Gavin Williams, RHP Hunter Gaddis, RHP Xzavion Curry, RHP Ben Lively, UTIL David Fry, OF Tyler Freeman, LHP Tim Herrin, RHP Cade Smith

Top 100 Prospects: OF Chase DeLauter (28), 1B Kyle Manzardo (60), OF Jaison Chourio (97)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $76.4 million (27th of 30)

Though they ended up with a record 10 games below .500, the Guardians went all the way in on breaking in the future of this franchise last year, only playing three guys over the age of 30 at any point in the entire season.

Now, with one of the best records in baseball and what can only be described as a heaping stockpile of key players under team control through at least 2028, it sure looks like Cleveland is going to be a contender for years to come.

We pretty much know at this point that the Guardians aren’t going to spend money on free agents, and there’s not much of a cavalry coming in the form of top prospects in the farm system. That latter part will change in a big way this summer after they make the No. 1 pick in the draft, but even that TBD player will likely need a couple of years before making a real impact.

That means what you see is more or less what you’re going to get from Cleveland for the foreseeable future—possibly minus Josh Naylor, who will hit free agency after the 2025 campaign.

However, simply keeping the status quo for half a decade would be good for what was the third team to reach 40 wins this season.

Current Record: 35-28

Long-Term Contracts: OF Ronald Acuña Jr. (thru 2028), 1B Matt Olson (thru 2030), 3B Austin Riley (thru 2033), RHP Spencer Strider (thru 2029), C Sean Murphy (thru 2029), OF Michael Harris II (thru 2032)

Controllable Assets: OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Bryce Elder, LHP Dylan Lee

Top 100 Prospects: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (59), RHP Owen Murphy (62), RHP Hurston Waldrep (73)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $183.8 million (10th of 30)

With both Acuña and Strider out for the year and with really just Marcell Ozuna pulling his weight on offense, Atlanta is nowhere near the World Series front-runner we were anticipating throughout the offseason.

Even with seemingly nothing going right, though, there are eight games above .500 and comfortably in the playoff picture, as even “down on its luck” Atlanta is still doggone good and not going anywhere in the near future.

That’s because it has hit the jackpot with so many of its decisions to sign young potential to long-term contracts.

Acuña’s 10-year, $134 million contract looks like highway robbery when he’s healthy. Having Ozzie Albies (through 2027) on a nine-year, $49 million deal is equally absurd. Murphy’s seven-year, $88 million contract sure is team-friendly for one of the most valuable catchers. Strider’s seven-year, $97 million deal is comically cheap for one of the best strikeout artists out there. And the eight-year, $72 million (possibly 10-year, $107 million) contract Harris signed less than three months into his MLB career just might end up having the most ROI of them all.

After six straight years of winning the NL East, though, Atlanta’s farm system is pretty well depleted, and this franchise is nowhere near as willing to spend on free agents as the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers and Yankees have been.

Granted, with how well it’s developed from within, there’s been no need to get involved in some of the bidding wars we’ve seen in recent winters. But that combination of factors keeps Atlanta from having much of a case for a spot in the top two.

Current Record: 42-22

Long-Term Contracts: N/A

Controllable Assets: SS Gunnar Henderson, RHP Kyle Bradish, RHP Yennier Cano, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, IF Jordan Westburg, OF Colton Cowser, OF Kyle Stowers, UTIL Connor Norby

Top 100 Prospects: SS Jackson Holliday (2), 3B Coby Mayo (11), C Samuel Basallo (13), 1B/OF Heston Kjerstad (26), OF Enrique Bradfield Jr. (99)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $63.7 million (29th of 30)

In addition to the eight players listed above who the Orioles will be able to keep through at least 2028, they also have Adley Rutschman, Félix Bautista, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells as key assets who will be arbitration-eligible through 2027.

Those 12 players plus the quintet of top 100 prospects has Baltimore exceptionally well-positioned to be a World Series candidate for at least the next three-plus seasons.

However, the combination of that “N/A” in long-term contracts and the fact that Baltimore has only slightly outspent the Oakland A’s ($62.5 million average) over the past four seasons is what keeps us from putting the Orioles any higher than this.

Maybe that willingness to spend money will change now that David Rubenstein has replaced Peter Angelos as the owner. If it does and they start signing the likes of Rutschman, Henderson, Rodriguez and Holliday to decade-long deals and/or become serious players for worthwhile free agents, that would vault the O’s to No. 2 or maybe even No. 1.

Until they bring that average payroll up to more than 25 percent of the Yankees’ payroll, though, New York remains the presumed team to beat in the AL East.

Current Record: 46-21

Long-Term Contracts: Aaron Judge (thru 2031), Gerrit Cole (thru 2028), Carlos Rodón (thru 2028), Giancarlo Stanton (thru 2028)

Controllable Assets: SS Anthony Volpe, IF Oswaldo Cabrera, RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Luis Gil

Top 100 Prospects: OF Jasson Dominguez (12), OF Spencer Jones (36), OF Everson Pereira (78), RHP Chase Hampton (86), SS Roderick Arias (93)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $245.6 million (3rd of 30)

Before the 2024 campaign began, the Orioles would have ranked ahead of the Yankees as the top American League team on this list, probably with some room to spare.

However, with Luis Gil unexpectedly taking Jackson Holliday’s place among the top AL Rookie of the Year candidates, the long-term future is looking mighty bright for the deep-pocketed franchise with the most World Series rings.

Having both Judge and Cole locked up through the next half-decade was already quite the feather in the Yankees’ cap. Those two stars were basically the entire team in 2023, and they still managed to win 82 games.

Now couple that duo with Gil as a breakout sensation, Volpe having a stellar sophomore season, Rodón bouncing back in a major way from a terrible 2023, Domínguez on the verge of making his triumphant return from Tommy John surgery and the necessary funds to fill in the gaps on an annual basis, and it’s only a matter of time before they get another World Series, right?

The big variable here is Juan Soto. If they’re able to re-sign him this offseason, a team already in great shape would become the indisputable AL club to beat for the foreseeable future, perhaps even the preseason World Series favorite for each of the next five years.

Current Record: 41-26

Long-Term Contracts: DH Shohei Ohtani (thru 2033), SS Mookie Betts (thru 2032), C Will Smith (thru 2033), RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (thru 2035), RHP Tyler Glasnow (thru 2028)

Controllable Assets: OF James Outman, RHP Gavin Stone, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Michael Grove, RHP Emmet Sheehan, RHP Landon Knack

Top 100 Prospects: OF Andy Pages (22), C Dalton Rushing (66), OF Josue De Paula (71)

Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $264.9 million (2nd of 30)

At some point, Ohtani’s mostly deferred contract—$2 million annually for a decade, followed by $68 million annually for a decade—is going to become a pain point for the Dodgers to navigate.

Until then, though, they’re going to enjoy the ride with what is (for now) the most team-friendly contract in baseball, even if he never pitches again.

Because they deferred so much of Ohtani’s deal, the Dodgers were subsequently able to sign Yamamoto to a 12-year deal, reupped with Glasnow on a five-year deal almost immediately after trading for him and extended Smith on a 10-year deal just before the regular season began.

Combine that with already having Betts through 2032 and Freddie Freeman through 2027, and you’re probably looking at the preseason NL favorite for the next several years.

It’s the young pitching, though, that will dictate whether the Dodgers are about to go on an Astros-like run of consecutive LCS appearances.

Stone is pitching great this season. Miller was solid as a rookie last year. Sheehan had remarkable strikeout stuff throughout his journey to the majors and will hopefully recover well from his Tommy John surgery. Grove has adapted well to a bullpen role. And Knack made four respectable MLB starts this spring and would probably be a regular in just about any other rotation.

All five of those right-handers are under team control through at least 2028, most of them for longer than that. If even two of them pan out behind Yamamoto and Glasnow, this team is going to be a juggernaut.